The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as retail inflation is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts.
Interest on home loans is likely to remain low and the share of banks in the overall mortgage market is set to rise in the medium term.
Retail inflation eased to a nearly six-year low of 3.16 per cent in April mainly due to subdued prices of vegetables, fruits, pulses, and other protein-rich items, creating enough room for the Reserve Bank to go for another round of rate cut in the June monetary policy review. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was 3.34 per cent in March and 4.83 per cent in April 2024. It was 3.15 per cent in July 2019.
'The slowdown in motor insurance premium growth is due to slower growth in vehicle sales. Also, there has been minimal hike in third-party rates in the past three years which is affecting the growth rate of third-party premiums.'
The automobile industry has sought government support in expediting approvals from the Chinese government for importing rare earth magnets used in various applications, including passenger cars. As per the industry sources, various domestic suppliers have already sought approval from the Chinese government through their local vendors in China.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for the tenth time in a row but changed its stance to 'neutral' that may lead to a cut in the forthcoming policies. RBI maintained status quo despite the US Federal Reserve lowering the benchmark rates by 50 basis points last month.
Wholesale price inflation dropped to 0.85 per cent in April as prices of food articles, manufactured products, and fuel eased, government data showed on Wednesday. WPI-based inflation was 2.05 per cent in March. It was 1.19 per cent in April last year.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has sought granular data from select non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) on their loan book growth. The details sought are on the outstanding product-wise portfolio and the annualised interest charged on them. The annualised interest slabs mentioned are as follows: less than 10 per cent, 10-20 per cent, 20-30 per cent, 30-40 per cent, 40-50 per cent, and above 50 per cent.
Wholesale price inflation marginally rose to 2.38 per cent in February due to expensive manufactured food items like vegetables oil and beverages, government data released on Monday showed. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation was 2.31 per cent in January. It was 0.2 per cent in February 2024.
Rating agencies Crisil and Icra on Monday revised down their India growth projections for the current fiscal and the second quarter mainly due to the ripple effect of slowdown in global growth and mixed crop output. Crisil downgraded the India growth forecast by 30 bps to 7 per cent while Icra pegged the economic expansion at 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of FY2022-23. "We have revised down our forecast for real gross domestic product growth to 7 per cent for fiscal 2023 from 7.3 per cent, primarily because of the slowdown in global growth that has started to impact our exports and industrial activity.
The government on Thursday ruled out giving another extension to various states for unbundling their electricity boards as part of measures to encourage non-government entities in the power sector.
One should avoid keeping excessive funds in one's savings account.
It can be noted that according to official estimates, GDP growth in FY14 is expected to come in at 4.9 per cent, up from 4.5 per cent in FY13, Icra said.
Warning banks on interest rates risks, high transaction costs and NPAs, ICRA said Indian banks are yet to attain global standard in profitability and productivity despite posting over 40% growth in net profit in the first half of this fiscal.
Continuing the downward trend, retail inflation fell to a five-month low of 4.31 per cent in January, mainly due to a decline in the prices of vegetables, eggs, and pulses. The Consumer Price Index-based retail inflation was 5.22 per cent in December and 5.1 per cent in January 2024. The previous low inflation was in August 2024 at 3.65 per cent.
Banking credit in the economy grew by 11.1 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in the fortnight ended March 7, while deposits grew at 10.2 per cent during the same period, which is a gap of around 90 basis points (bps), according to the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
Without disclosing reasons, ICRA informed the stock exchanges on Thursday, 'The board, after due consideration and taking into account the best interests of the company and its various stakeholders, has decided to terminate the employment of Takkar with immediate effect.'
The Centre's fiscal deficit touched 74.5 per cent of the annual target at the end of January 2025, according to the data released by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) on Friday.
The government's capital expenditure in the April-November period of financial year 2024-25 (FY25) continued to contract with a 12.3 per cent decline year-on-year (Y-o-Y), according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts on Tuesday.
Reserve Bank Governor D Subbarao will, however, not touch the policy rate or the repo, rate at which RBI lends to banks, on October 30 when he unveils the half-yearly monetary policy because headline inflation continues to be elevated at 7-7.5 per cent, the agency said.
Retail inflation dipped marginally to a nearly six-year low of 3.34 per cent in March due to a decline in prices of vegetables and protein-rich items. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was 3.61 per cent in February and 4.85 per cent in March last year.
The domestic aviation industry is expected to report a net loss of Rs 25,000-26,000 crore this fiscal with elevated jet fuel prices and fare caps continuing to pose a major challenge for the airlines' profitability, domestic rating agency ICRA Ltd said on Thursday. The domestic airlines, however, are likely to post a reduced net loss of Rs 14,000-16,000 crore in the next financial year on the back of a "notable recovery" in air passenger traffic and lower level of debt, ICRA said. The ratings agency also estimates that the industry will require an additional funding in the range of Rs 20,000-22,000 crore during FY22-FY24.
Adani Ports and JSW Infrastructure, India's leading private port operators, are expanding their logistics services to capture extra cargo while they run integrated transport services. "With incrementally less availability of lucrative port assets that can drive cargo volumes, port operators have naturally shifted their focus on deriving value in the upstream integration, i.e., the logistics space.
Wholesale price inflation moderated to 2.31 per cent in January due to the decline in prices of food items especially vegetables, government data released on Friday showed. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation was 2.37 per cent in December 2024. It was 0.33 per cent in January 2024.
US strikes on Iran's three main nuclear facilities have once again raised concerns that Tehran might shut down the Strait of Hormuz - one of the world's most critical chokepoints, through which a fifth of global oil and gas supply flows.
Major Indian carmakers are preparing for sluggish domestic PV sales growth of just 1-2 per cent in FY26.
The Indian IT services industry is expected to clock revenue growth in the mid-single digit for the financial year 2024-2025 (FY25), according to a report by Icra for the year.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate at its upcoming monetary policy review meeting, taking place soon after the announcement of the Lok Sabha election results, amid inflation challenges, said experts. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may also refrain from rate cut as economic growth is picking up, notwithstanding the elevated interest rate of 6.5 per cent (repo) prevailing since February 2023. The meeting of the Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed MPC is scheduled for June 5 to 7.
Domestic air passenger traffic plunged around 43 per cent month-on-month at 64 lakh in January 2022 as the third wave of the pandemic and the resultant restrictions by state governments kept flyers away from air travel, Icra said on Tuesday. The domestic passenger volume in December 2021 was recorded at 112 lakh. The rating agency said it is expecting the recovery process to remain subdued during March quarter and that the jet fuel prices continue to be a drag on the sector. The passenger traffic declined 17 per cent last month over 77 lakh passengers transported by domestic airlines on local routes in January 2021, Icra said.
The growth in production of eight key infrastructure sectors entered a negative zone after three-and-a-half years, contracting 1.8 per cent in August 2024 due to decline in output of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, cement and electricity, according to official data released on Monday. The growth rate was 6.1 per cent in July. The growth of core sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity -- was 13.4 per cent in August 2023.
Domestic rating agency Icra on Monday upped its banking sector outlook to 'positive' on healthy asset growth, improving asset quality and stronger capital buffers. The agency expects asset quality to improve to a decadal best of 4 per cent from a gross non-performing assets (NPAs) perspective by the end of FY24. The banking system's credit growth will slow down to 11-11.6 per cent in FY24, after a very healthy growth of 15.2-16.1 per cent expected in FY23, the rating agency said.
The "weaponisation" of economic activity - through tariffs and sanctions - is now a reality, with countries leveraging these tools strategically, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said at the Raisina Dialogue recently.
Health insurance premium growth has slowed after touching record highs during the Covid-19 pandemic due to tapering demand from retail consumers amid affordability issues. According to General Insurance Council data, health insurance premiums grew by 10.44 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in the Apr-Jan period of FY25 in comparison with 20.79 per cent in the year-ago period. It was around 23.57 per cent in FY23, and 25.89 per cent in FY22.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday came out with comprehensive draft guidelines to harmonise and regulate gold loans across all financial entities, including putting a cap of 75 per cent on loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. The draft guidelines also aim to address concerns related to certain lending practices, provide clarity on specific aspects, and strengthen the conduct-related standards in the sector.
The output of eight key infrastructure sectors expanded by 2 per cent in September, though the growth was slower than the 9.5 per cent registered in the same month last year, according to official data released on Wednesday. The output of these sectors had contracted by 1.6 per cent in August. Out of the eight key sectors, three -- crude oil, natural gas and electricity -- recorded negative growth in September.
Domestic steel prices have seen an increase over the past couple of months in anticipation of a safeguard duty, but a looming global trade war is likely to weigh as threat of import rises and prospect of export flounders. Data from BigMint showed that in March 2025, hot rolled coil (HRC) prices ex-Mumbai increased by Rs 600 per tonne month-on-month (M-o-M), rising from Rs 48,400 per tonne in February to Rs 49,000 per tonne.
Wholesale inflation fell to a 4-month low of 1.31 per cent in August due to a decline in prices of vegetables and fuel, even though onion and potato prices spiked, according to official data released on Tuesday. Wholesale price index-based inflation fell for the second straight month in August after it hit a high of 3.43 per cent in May. Inflation in July was 2.04 per cent. In August last year, WPI inflation was (-) 0.46 per cent.
In 2025 banks are in for challenges such as pressure on margins and slowing credit growth. With the likelihood of a repo rate cut in February or April, external benchmark-linked loans of banks will be repriced immediately. However, deposit rates are expected to adjust more gradually, which could impact the net interest margin (NIM) - a key measure of profitability for banks.
'The nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 may be revised upwards on higher growth expectations.'
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